Churchill River desk · Costs

Seven price stories. One ladder. Nothing merged.

This page keeps five price stories apart so they do not mash. The old export lore. The new paper’s dollar-and-inflation structure — not a locked industrial tariff. What Hydro posts for Labrador households. The mine tariff, which is a formula, not one cent. And two public Hydro-Québec export stories — a start and a life average — that are different measurements.

Do not present illustrative MOU ¢/kWh schedules, Annex D target payments, or reported HQ export paths as locked PPAs. Heritage 0.2¢/kWh is the 1969-lineage renewal export price (labeled heritage). DCIA Material Terms (17 Aug 2026): availability / take-or-pay, Annex D target $ + Annex F CPI, HQ purchase options. Rate No. 1.1L is Labrador Interconnected domestic, 3.154¢/kWh (Jul 2026 schedule; Hydro current-rates page). LAB-IND-1 is demand plus a monthly RFIRM formula — not one ¢/kWh. Island Industrial Firm is a different class on the Island grid. None of these is Churchill Falls offtake. Reported 1.8¢/kWh (2027 start) and 7.4¢/kWh (~50-year average) are labeled separately below. Annex D $ → locked ¢ tariff: UNKNOWN.

Last verified 2026-09-22public documents onlyUNKNOWN labelled

Heritage export

1969 renewal, two mills. Export price under a specific contract (2016–2041). Not a rate anyone here can buy at. Card →

Rejected 2024 MOU

MOU front block, 2025–2041. IRC levelized cost, 2024 dollars. The MOU expired 30 April 2026. Card →

Rejected 2024 MOU

MOU back block, 2042–2075. IRC levelized cost, 2024 dollars. Shows why the MOU 'average' hid a steep back end. Card →

Reported new HQ export path

Starts 2027 (reported). Starting price on the media graph, per NL Hydro. Not the fifty-year average. Card →

Reported new HQ export path

HQ release framing. Hydro-Québec's own 17 Aug release: “competitive rate of 6¢/kWh”. Its framing, not a schedule.

Reported new HQ export path

50-year average (reported). Canadian Press, corrected: averaging 7.4¢ over the next fifty years. Not the 2027 start. Card →

Reported new HQ export path

By 2041 (reported). NL Hydro description via CBC / Radio-Canada: rising about 14% a year to 11.5¢ by 2041. Card →

Published Labrador tariffs

Rate 1.1L domestic. Labrador Interconnected household energy, July 2026 schedule, plus a monthly customer charge. Card →

Island grid (not Labrador)

Island Industrial base (+ riders). IND-1 base energy before the 1.987¢ and 0.007¢ riders and demand charges. Island grid only. Card →

Island grid (not Labrador)

Island domestic first block. Hydro's current-rates page for Island Interconnected, L'Anse au Loup and isolated diesel. Not Labrador.

Québec data-centre rate (proposed)

HQ proposed data-centre rate. Filed with the Régie 19 Feb 2026 for data centres of 5 MW and up; decision expected around year-end.

Signed industrial ¢ for retained power

New Labrador industrial ¢ under the DCIA. No public, locked cent rate for retained Churchill / Gull Island megawatts. This desk does not invent one. Card →

LAB-IND-1

Published Labrador tariffs

The mine rate is demand charges plus a monthly formula, RFIRM = {(ED × RD) + (EM × RM)} / ETOTAL. It is not one cent and is not drawn as a rung. Card →

Each row measures something different. A starting price, a fifty-year average and a household tariff cannot be subtracted from one another. The desk labels them and refuses to merge them. Source for each rung is under its number.

Contested communications — not a locked industrial ¢

Two public prices. Different measurements.

Starts ~1.8¢ in 2027.

ReportedLast verified 2026-09-22

The starting price on the press graph — not the fifty-year average.

Canadian Press via CP24, 17 Aug 2026 (corrected): graph provided to media — Hydro-Québec pays 1.8¢/kWh beginning in 2027. That 1.8¢ is the starting reported path, not the 7.4¢ life average. Financial Post (18 Aug 2026) separately described a rise to 11.5¢/kWh by 2041; that is a reported path, not the 50-year average. Annex D is not this ¢: it posts target $ payments. Not a locked industrial PPA ¢ for Labrador mines or compute.

Averages ~7.4¢ over the life.

ReportedLast verified 2026-09-22

The life average on the same graph — not the 2027 starting price.

Canadian Press via CP24, 17 Aug 2026 (corrected): “averaging out to an effective price of 7.4 cents per kilowatt hour over the next 50 years.” Prior 2024 MOU average cited ~5.9¢/kWh. 7.4 is that 50-year average — not the 1.8¢ 2027 start. This desk prefers CP24’s start-plus-average framing over other 7.4 wording. Not a locked industrial PPA ¢ for Labrador mines or compute.

Canadian Press — media graph: 1.8¢ in 2027; 7.4¢ 50-year average (corrected 17 Aug 2026) →

Those are two different measurements, not a contradiction to mash into one number. The paper pays target dollars, then inflation. Nobody has published how to turn that table into a locked industrial cent. We do not invent it.

Canadian Press via CP24, 17 Aug 2026 (corrected): a graph provided to media showed Hydro-Québec paying 1.8¢/kWh beginning in 2027, rising through 2077, averaging 7.4¢/kWh over the next 50 years. Prior MOU average cited ~5.9¢. 1.8 is the starting reported path; 7.4 is the life average. Do not reconcile them into one number. DCIA Annex D (17 Aug 2026) is target $ payments; Annex F is CPI. Converting Annex D into a voter ¢/kWh industrial tariff without a published method: UNKNOWN. Heritage 0.2¢/kWh is the 1969-lineage comparator (labeled heritage). LAB-IND-1 stays a formula, not one ¢. Open People is not a DCIA party.

Last verified 2026-09-22. UNKNOWN: a published method that converts DCIA Annex D (17 Aug 2026) target $ payments into a locked ¢/kWh industrial tariff. Annex D posts yearly “Payments by HQ for existing CF volumes” in $B (2027: $0.531B beside 29.207 TWh). Annex F CPI-adjusts those payments (Statistics Canada All-items, Canada; 2027 base). Annex D is not a ¢ column. Open People does not invent a payment÷TWh industrial ¢, and does not reconcile 7.4 with Annex D. Heritage 0.2¢/kWh remains the 1969-lineage comparator (labeled heritage). LAB-IND-1 stays a formula. None of 7.4, 1.8, or 11.5 is a locked industrial PPA ¢ for Labrador mines or compute.

01 — Heritage

Two mills.

The old Hydro-Québec renewal price is two , two tenths of a cent. It is lore about what left the border, not a rate anyone here can buy power at today.

The 1969 Churchill Falls contract’s automatic 25-year renewal (2016–2041) prices Hydro-Québec purchases at two mills per kWh — 0.2¢/kWh. That is an export price under a specific contract, not a rate available to industrial customers in Newfoundland and Labrador today.

02 — Structure

Not a locked ¢ schedule.

The describe how later are supposed to be built: an for Hydro-Québec, for NL Hydro, a , leftover-power options, three-year notice. The rejected MOU's ¢ path is on this page only so nobody treats it as current.

Framework, not executed. These are Material Terms for later contracts. The point is that the west branch is already written and the home branch is not. Tracker row →

03 — Published Labrador rates

A household cent, and a formula for mines.

Hydro posts 3.154¢/kWh for households on the Labrador interconnected grid. Mines are on : demand charges plus a monthly firm-energy formula. This desk does not collapse that into one cent.

NL Hydro current-rates page (the live URL path is spelled “electicity”): “For customers on the Labrador Interconnected System, the current rate is 3.154 cents per kWh.” July 2026 Schedule, Rate No. 1.1L Domestic (LAB-1), effective 1 July 2026: energy 3.154¢/kWh plus basic customer charge $6.87/month (1.5% prompt-pay discount).

LAB-IND-1, July 2026: transmission demand charge $1.08/kW-month (closed rate, existing customers only); generation demand charge $0.41/kW-month; firm energy RFIRM = {(ED × RD) + (EM × RM)} / ETOTAL, with RD (Development Block) $29.22/MWh and RM (Market Block) $78.61/MWh for calendar 2026, RM set from NYISO Zone A settlement prices. Formula inputs, not one industrial ¢.

04 — All markers

Every price on this desk, with its status.

Heritage

Heritage export (1969 renewal)

Two mills — two tenths of a cent — is the old Hydro-Québec renewal price, not a rate anyone in this province can buy power at today.

The 1969 Churchill Falls contract’s automatic 25-year renewal (2016–2041) prices HQ purchases at two mills per kWh. A mill is one-tenth of a cent, so two mills is 0.2¢/kWh ($2/MWh). Heritage NL and Feehan & Baker. This is an export price under a specific contract. It is not Rate 1.1L, not LAB-IND-1, not Island Industrial, and not a 2027 DCIA PPA rate.

Last verified 2026-09-22

Structure

Rejected 2024 MOU path (IRC)

The old memorandum’s “average” hid a cheap front and a steep back. The independent review took that paper apart. That path is history — not the August framework.

IRC report and technical briefing (19 May 2026): MOU CF PPA decomposed to a levelized 3.8¢/kWh over 2025–2041 then 16.7¢/kWh over 2042–2075 in 2024 dollars, targeting $33.8B PV via a block-pricing formula (Schedules F/G of the MOU). The IRC found the MOU not in the overall best long-term interest as written. The 2024 MOU expired 30 Apr 2026. Do not model the DCIA as this ¢ path.

Last verified 2026-09-22

Structure

DCIA HQ payments (structure)

The new paper pays Hydro-Québec’s Churchill Falls offtake as a schedule of target dollars, then nudges it with a Canadian inflation band. That is not a posted industrial cent rate.

Material Terms: HQ’s New CF PPA is an availability contract with fixed target payments (Annex D), monthly invoicing, term 1 Jan 2027–31 Dec 2077, CPI adjustment (Annex F) from a 2027 base with a deadband centred on 2.06% ± 0.40% (Statistics Canada All-items, Canada). NLH’s New CF PPA is take-or-pay, same blended price and CPI mechanism, first-out-of-plant. Annex D’s 2027 cell is $0.531B on 29.207 TWh — a $ table, not a ¢ column. Converting Annex D alone into a voter ¢/kWh industrial tariff: UNKNOWN (see contested communications). These Definitive Agreements are not signed.

Last verified 2026-09-22

Reported

Reported HQ ¢ path (not a locked PPA)

NL Hydro has described a rising export price toward 2041. Treat that as a public description of direction — not a signed industrial rate, and not a data-centre tariff.

Public reporting after 17 Aug 2026 has described Hydro-Québec paying 1.8¢/kWh beginning in 2027, escalating about 14% a year to 11.5¢/kWh by 2041. That is a reported export-path description. It is not the CP24 7.4¢ 50-year average. It is not in the cents columns of Annex D (which is target $B + CPI). It is not LAB-IND-1. Binding PPA ¢/kWh: UNKNOWN until Definitive Agreements are public. See contested communications on this page.

Last verified 2026-09-22

Structure

Unused-retain / synthetic export options

If NL does not use power at home, the paper already lists ways to sell it west — some at a discount if nobody gave three years’ notice.

Schedule B §4 HQ purchase options on NLH entitlements: (i) up to 280 MW at a Synthetic Export Price (1/3 New England, 1/3 New York Astoria, 1/3 Ontario PQAT, net of transmission); (ii) up to 240 MW CHPE-equivalent pricing; (iii) up to 200 MW NECEC-equivalent pricing; (iv) Discounted PPA Price at 95% for unplanned unused energy; (v) 1.5× Premium PPA Price on CF entitlements. Three-year notice except (iv) and an initial election at Definitive Agreements. Recapture for domestic load: three-year notice. Framework, not executed.

Last verified 2026-09-22

Published rate

Labrador Interconnected domestic (Rate 1.1L)

Household power on the Labrador interconnected grid is posted at a bit over three cents a kilowatt-hour, plus a small monthly customer charge. That is a domestic tariff — not a mine rate, and not the Churchill Falls export lore.

NL Hydro current-rates page (path spelled “electicity-rates/current-rates”): “For customers on the Labrador Interconnected System, the current rate is 3.154 cents per kWh.” Jul 2026 Schedule, Rate No. 1.1L Domestic (LAB-1), effective 1 Jul 2026: energy 3.154¢/kWh plus basic customer charge $6.87/month (1.5% prompt-pay discount). Availability: Labrador Interconnected service area, Domestic Unit / household premises. Same Hydro page quotes 15.587¢/kWh as the current first-block rate for Island Interconnected, L’Anse au Loup, and Isolated Diesel — that is not Labrador and not industrial. This 3.154¢ figure is not LAB-IND-1.

Last verified 2026-09-22

Structure

Labrador Industrial (LAB-IND-1)

Mines on the Labrador bulk grid do not pay one posted household-style cent. They pay demand charges plus a monthly mix of a development energy block and a market energy block. Open the July 2026 PDF. Do not flatten that into a single ¢/kWh on this desk.

Jul 2026 Schedule, LAB-IND-1 (pp. LAB-IND-1–4). Availability: Labrador Interconnected bulk transmission ≥66 kV under an Industrial Service Agreement — not Rate 1.1L. Structure: (1) Transmission Demand Charge, closed — $1.08/kW-month of billing demand, existing customers only; specifically assigned transmission charges may apply with Board approval. (2) Generation Demand Charge $0.41/kW-month. Billing demand = greater of Power on Order, actual monthly demand, or calendar-year maximum less interruptible. (3) Firm energy is not a single ¢/kWh. RFIRM = {(ED × RD) + (EM × RM)} / ETOTAL, applied to forecast energy (customer forecast by the 19th of the prior month). RD = Development Block Energy Rate, $29.22/MWh for 1 Jan–31 Dec 2026, then CPI All-items Canada annually. RM = Market Block Energy Rate, $78.61/MWh for 1 Jan–31 Dec 2026, set from NYISO Zone A peak/off-peak settlement after 19 November of the prior year, FX-converted, losses and market fees adjusted. Imbalance energy (above forecast) is a monthly NYISO Zone A blend. Schedule A posts monthly Development Energy Block MWh. RD and RM are formula inputs for 2026 — not a collapsed industrial ¢, not a DCIA PPA, not Rate 1.1L. Full schedule: NL Hydro Jul 2026 PDF.

Last verified 2026-09-22

NL Hydro Schedule of Rates, Rules and Regulations, Jul 2026 (LAB-IND-1 PDF) →

Published rate

Island Industrial Firm (Island grid — not Labrador)

Island mills and mines sit on a different grid and a different tariff than Labrador. Do not quote this as a Labrador rate.

Jul 2026 Schedule, Industrial – Firm (IND-1): Availability is the Interconnected Island bulk transmission grid at ≥66 kV — not the Labrador Interconnected grid, not LAB-IND-1, not Rate 1.1L. Demand $10.73/kW-month. Firm energy base 4.428¢/kWh plus Project Cost Recovery Rider 1.987¢/kWh and CDM Cost Recovery Adjustment 0.007¢/kWh (also P.U. 17(2026) effective 1 Jul 2026). Base rate is subject to RSP adjustments. Specifically assigned annual charges are listed by Island customer. Not a Labrador industrial ¢. Not a DCIA export price.

Last verified 2026-09-22

UNKNOWN

Signed industrial ¢ for new retain

There is no public, locked cent rate that says what a new Labrador mine — or any other new load — pays for retained Churchill / Gull Island megawatts under the still-unsigned PPAs.

UNKNOWN: a published firm industrial tariff for DCIA retain megawatts; a compute tariff; a locked ¢/kWh HQ PPA. Open People does not invent one. Rate 1.1L 3.154¢ and LAB-IND-1’s 2026 RD/RM inputs are current Hydro schedules, not DCIA offtake. Illustrative 4–6¢ “asks” on older campaign material are Open People asks, not government figures, and are not repeated here as rates.

Last verified 2026-09-22

DCIA (Hydro-Québec PDF), 17 Aug 2026 →

Schedule-era — not current

Older Labrador Industrial PDF (2015 figures)

An older Labrador Industrial schedule is still on Hydro’s site. Its 2015 energy-block numbers are history. Use them only as a then-versus-now of the same formula, not as today’s mine rate.

Schedule-era (older PDF hosted at /wp-content/uploads/2014/04/Labrador-Industrial-Rate-Schedule.pdf; figures stated effective 1 Jan 2015–31 Dec 2015): transmission demand $1.25/kW of billing demand; generation demand $0.43/kW-month; Development Block Energy Rate RD $22.43/MWh; Market Block Energy Rate RM $45.52/MWh; RFIRM = {(ED × RD) + (EM × RM)} / ETOTAL. Jul 2026 LAB-IND-1 keeps that formula with different posted components (closed transmission demand $1.08/kW-month existing customers only; generation demand $0.41/kW-month; RD $29.22/MWh and RM $78.61/MWh for calendar 2026). Do not quote 2015 figures as current.

Island retail on older campaign copy (“11–13¢ delivered”) matches Newfoundland Power's tail-block general-service energy charges only; first-block and demand-inclusive bills run higher, roughly 11–15¢ before demand charges and HST. Not a Labrador rate and not a locked PUB figure here. Hydro's current-rates page quotes 15.587¢ first-block for Island Interconnected and isolated diesel domestic; that is not Labrador. Binding DCIA industrial cents remain not published.

Tracker · Industries · Evidence brief.